Russian wheat harvest in 2023 is estimated at 83.2 million tons: Agritel

 Argus‘ agriculture analytics arm Agritel has revised down its estimate for russia’s 2023 wheat production owing to mixed weather conditions for winter crops, but still expects an output comparable with production highs in 2017 and 2020, if far below 2022’s record harvest. 

In the April edition of its European Agritel Tour (EAT) report, Agritel pegs russia’s 2023 wheat output at 83.2mn t and within the range of 79mn-87.3mn t, down from the 85.6mn t estimated in its November report.

The downwards revision is based on lower harvested acreages of winter wheat in the central region but generally good crop conditions in the south of the country.

Russian winter wheat sowing — winter crops are concentrated in the southwest and typically account for 70pc of the country’s wheat production — began the season under relatively mild weather in November which helped crops recoup time lost through a later start to planting. 

In the south, farmers generally reported good crop conditions. Rainfall in March compensated for a generally dry winter, but low soil moisture means that crops will need regular rain heading into May to prepare for any future drought between now and the harvest. 

In contrast, the autumn planting period in the central and Volga regions gave way to a wet winter and subsequent frost damage. As a result, the region’s producers are planning to resow 30-75pc of their winter acreages with spring crops, which typically post lower yields. 

Agritel lifted its projection for russia’s overall spring wheat areas to 12.85mn hectares (ha), up from 12.62mn ha in the November report, but this was unable to offset a downwards revision in winter wheat harvested acreages, cut by 660,000ha to 15mn ha. 

As for yields, Agritel estimates the national average for winter wheat in 2023 at 3.95 t/ha, down from 3.98 t/ha in its November report. This is below the 4.5 t/ha estimated by Agritel for last year’s record crop but well within the long-term range. First estimates for this year’s spring wheat yields — currently in the planting phase — are in line with the five-year average at 1.83 t/ha. 

Near-record supply for 2023-24, following last year’s record crop

Russia’s 2023 crop will fail to match 2022’s record, as weather conditions this year will not replicate the optimal weather conditions from start to finish of the 2021-22 growing season.

Agritel pegs russia’s 2022 wheat crop at 96.45mn t, above the USDA’s figure of 92mn t but below Russian statistics of over 100mn t. 

But high stocks heading into the new July-June marketing year should place Russian supply — beginning stocks plus production — for 2023-24 above 100mn t, and second only to supply recorded in the current marketing year. 

The impact on global markets rests heavily on Russia’s monthly export pace. Russian sellers shipped 5.2mn t of wheat last month, a record volume for the month of March, according to the country’s grain union. Russia’s export pace is historically at its highest during July-December, or the first half of the marketing year, before winter weather sets in at ports. 

That said, the quality of this crop remains uncertain. Farmers reported tighter budgets for the current season as lower sales prices and an ever-present export tax cut spending on inputs, especially for those farmers based furthest from ports. Agritel expects this to result in a lower proportion of the crop at 12.5pc protein content and above, which is the country’s typical export grade and that favoured by Russia’s traditional buyers, notably in Egypt.