Demand for the new crop is growing, but farmers are in no hurry to sell

Despite the active demand for the new crop, Ukrainian farmers are refraining from forward contracts due to the discrepancy between prices and their expectations.

Imports of soft wheat to the EU from the beginning of the season (July 1, 2024) to June 15, 2025 are 7.2 million tons (–20% y/y). This is reported by Spike Brokers.

Rains in Germany during the critical growing season improved the harvest prospects – the forecast for 2025 has been increased to 21.5 million tons (+16.3% compared to last year). Ukraine’s share decreased from 71.4% to 61.5%, while Canada and the USA increased their presence to 15% and 5.8%, respectively.

Demand for new crop wheat is growing in the domestic market, but supply is limited. Prices are gradually tightening:

• 12.5% ​​DAP Odesa: $210–212;

• 11.5% DAP Odesa: $207–209;

• fodder DAP Odesa: $200–202/t.

The old harvest is being sold sluggishly — activity is maintained only for closing export contracts. Demand for the new harvest is growing, but farmers are not ready to fix prices:

• DAP Odesa 2025: $196–198/t;

• DAP Germany 2025: €200–205/t.

Despite the growth in oil quotations on foreign markets, domestic demand remains weak — processors have stopped purchases due to technical work or accumulated stocks. Thus, the supply of oils under DAP conditions is $510–515/t.

As USM wrote the day before, the Verkhovna Rada may return to reviewing the decision on the “oil amendments” if they are finalized.