Brazil is pushing Ukraine out of the Chinese corn market — ASAP Agri
21.11.2025 - 15:34
From July to September, China imported 10-12 “panamaxes” of Brazilian corn, using part of the import quota of 7.2 million tons for 2025.
Brazil is gradually capturing all of China’s demand for imported corn, pushing Ukrainian exporters out of the market, which was one of the key ones for the Ukrainian agricultural sector a few years ago. This is reported by ASAP Agri.
“Prices for Brazilian corn for shipment in the second half of November are about 245 USD/t CIF to Chinese ports. Russia, meanwhile, is actively offering bulk shipments at about 250 USD/t CIF, gradually expanding its presence in the market,” said Atria Brokers broker Daria Marchenko.
At the same time, Ukrainian suppliers remain uncompetitive in terms of price: offers for November are 213 USD/t FOB, plus freight of 46–47 USD/t to South China — a total of about 259 USD/t CIF, which is 10–15 dollars more expensive than Brazilian deliveries.
The situation is not better for January shipments: Brazilian contracts are valued at 248 USD/t CIF, while Ukrainian ones are about 258 USD/t CIF. Even container deliveries, which are 10 dollars cheaper, do not provide a competitive advantage.
“Ukraine has now effectively dropped out of the Chinese corn market. Only if domestic prices decrease at the end of the year may a narrow window of opportunity for a few deliveries appear — but this will be more of an exception,” the expert explained.
At the same time, China is actively buying up its own grain, keeping import demand at a low level. This policy, together with Brazil’s price advantage, threatens even the minimal presence of Ukrainian suppliers in the Asian market.
As USM wrote, in October the main buyers of Ukrainian corn were Italy, Turkey, and Korea.
