Due to port blockade, grain stocks in Ukraine will increase to a record 36 million tons, — USDA

At the same time, corn exports this season will decrease by 54% compared to the previous one.

This is stated in the Grain and Feed Quarterly report of the Kyiv office of the US Department of Agriculture, writes Elevatorist.

The final grain stocks in Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year may increase to a record 36.1 million tons – more than four times compared to the last season.

The largest accumulation will be of corn – 19.58 million tons compared to 2.86 million at the end of the last season. Wheat stocks will increase from 2.46 million to 11.83 million tons, barley – from 1.81 million to 4.61 million, rye – from 33 thousand to 111 thousand tons.

According to USDA, this year, 33.5 million tons of corn were harvested compared to 30.6 million last year, 26.8 million tons of wheat compared to 24 million, and 7 million tons of barley compared to 5.54 million. At the same time, it is more difficult to export this grain. Wheat exports will fall from 14.1 million tons to 8.7 million, corn from 22.2 million to 10.2 million, or 54%. Analysts predict 2 million tons of barley.

The pace of shipments has already halved. In July-September 2026, Ukraine exported an average of 1.7 million tons of grain per month, while in the previous season the average monthly figure was 3.1 million tons.

The reason is the worsening security situation in the Black Sea and Russian attacks on logistics infrastructure – ports, railways, bridges, land checkpoints and ships.

Instead, Minister of Agrarian Policy Taras Vysotsky reported that Ukraine has secured enough temporary capacity for this season. In an August report, the USDA estimated certified grain storage facilities at approximately 23 million tons and warned that the country may need another 10–12 million tons of temporary storage.

Also, the day before, the USM reported that Ukraine would lose $6.6 billion in foreign trade due to the blockade of ports and Russian attacks.