Black Sea wheat supplies to decline by 2026

Crop losses in the Black Sea countries, as well as Russia’s war against Ukraine, could lead to a shortage of wheat on the world market.

World wheat supplies for export could be under pressure until 2026 due to reduced production in key Black Sea countries, Reuters reported.

Thus, according to forecasts, Ukraine’s wheat harvest in the 2025/26 marketing year could fall to 17.9 million tonnes due to drought during the sowing campaign and low production profitability. This could be the lowest figure in the last 13 years.

Although the current USDA forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year shows a slight improvement in the global stock-to-use ratio — to 15.89% — this is still below the long-term average, indicating potential risks to the stability of the world wheat market.

The day before, USM informed that a ship with Ukrainian grain has been held in the port of Yemen for a month.