Control over Zmiinyi Island is still in the center of attention

Control over the island remains important not only for Ukraine, but also for NATO countries, in particular Romania. Analysts continue to study the geostrategic significance of Zmiinyi, the possibilities for its protection, and are considering means that will help to prevent a re-occupation by russia.

USM publishes the main theses of a study conducted by the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).

Zmiinyi Island is of immense geostrategic importance for the Black Sea and beyond, despite the fact that it is a rocky landscape less than one square kilometer in size.

In their study, the analysts note that military control over the island and surrounding waters affects all shipping lanes connecting Ukraine to the rest of the world via the Black Sea, as well as those connecting continental Europe to the Black Sea via the Danube.

“Russia occupied the island on the first day of its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Since then, there has been a fierce struggle for control, and on June 30 russian forces finally retreated. But russian federation may again try to seize the island as a bargaining chip just before the ceasefire. This would have drastic military and economic consequences for both Ukraine and NATO,” CEPA reports.

Second, maintaining territory under Ukrainian control is important for maintaining global grain supplies, for the future exploitation of energy reserves in the surrounding waters, and for broader regional security.

Analysts say NATO allies should continue to support Ukraine in strengthening its coastal and island defenses with Harpoon anti-ship missiles, Stinger anti-aircraft weapons, as well as sophisticated radar and integrated command and control systems.

In their study, CEPA concluded that Zmiinyi Island is “easy to capture, but difficult to hold.” Its proximity to the shipping corridor between the Black Sea ports of Ukraine and the Bosphorus Strait, as well as the estuary of the Danube River and the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria, makes it strategically important both militarily and economically.

Thus, russia’s naval blockade of Ukraine, supported by its position on Zmiiny Island, contributed to the strangulation of Ukraine’s economy even without conquering the country’s Black Sea coast.

“Zmiinyi Island would be a key point in russia’s broader regional ambitions, with long-range air defense systems that would allow it to dominate the northwestern Black Sea and disrupt grain supplies to Ukraine, as well as develop maritime energy prospects and diversification. Perhaps even more importantly, the proximity of Zmiinyi Island to the Mykhailo Kogelnicanu military base in Romania, located only 167 km from the island, can significantly increase the potential for future miscalculations and flare-ups in the event of a re-occupation by russia,” analysts say.

As you know, the Romanian military base hosts a significant number of NATO forces and assets, including an additional 1,000 troops from the United States, redeployed from Germany from February 2022.

Therefore, denying russian control over the island is important for:

• for the successful defense of Ukraine;

• for free trade in the Black Sea;

• for the security of global food and energy supplies.

CEPA emphasizes that the United States and other NATO allies must be ready to use resources deployed in the region and provide Ukraine with long-range precision weapons systems necessary to prevent a new and potentially permanent russian presence on Zmiinyi Island.