Grain exports will decrease significantly in the second half of the season
27.12.2024 - 14:28
Despite the reduced harvest in 2024, Ukraine has demonstrated high export activity due to the stable operation of deep-water ports.
Active exports in the first half of the season and a smaller harvest will lead to a significant reduction in volumes in the second half of the season. This was reported to Latifundist by Olivier Bouye, Head of the Analytical Department of ASAP Agri.
Expected export volumes:
• wheat: 6.5 million tons (11 million tons in 2023/24 MY);
• barley: 0.5 million tons (2.4 million tons in 2023/24 MY);
• corn: 17.1 million tons (18.5 million tons in 2023/24 MY).
The analyst notes that the volume deficit may force exporters to ration wheat and barley, which is already affecting domestic prices, which remain high due to fierce competition.
The oilseed market also sees a decline in exports of most products, with the exception of soybeans. Expected volumes:
• rapeseed: 0.7 million tons (at the same level as last year);
• sunflower oil: 3.1 million tons (4.3 million tons in 2023/24 MY);
• soybeans: 2.5 million tons (1.6 million tons in 2023/24 MY).
Olivier Bouye noted that soybeans could affect the overall market balance due to higher processing margins compared to sunflowers. This could reduce soybean exports compared to forecasts, but at the same time stimulate the production and export of soybean oil and meal.
The reduction in export volumes in the second half of the season is likely to contribute to lower freight and logistics costs compared to the previous year, the analyst noted.
Recall that from July to December 2024, grain exports from Ukraine amounted to 18.9 million tons, which significantly exceeds the indicators for the same period last year (15.4 million tons).
Main crops:
• wheat: 10 million tons (7.6 million tons in 2023/24 MY);
• barley: 2 million tons (1.1 million tons in 2023/24 MY);
• corn: 6.9 million tons (6.7 million tons in 2023/24 MY).
Recently, USM wrote that Zelenskyy confirmed Ukraine’s intentions to supply grain to Syria.
