How global shipping is reacting to Trump’s election victory

Analysts have shared their predictions about the impact of Donald Trump’s presidency on global shipping.

The shipping industry will have to prepare for extraordinary changes in the coming years, not only in trade flows and geopolitics, but also in the pace of global environmental regulation, writes Splash 24/7.

The managing director of the Thai company Precious Shipping, Khalid Hashim, predicts that Trump’s victory may lead to the introduction of additional tariffs against China.

“In the eight years since the US began the tariff game at the start of Trump’s first term, actual US container shipping imports have increased dramatically. Look at the figures declared by Los Angeles and Long Beach, the two largest container terminals in the US in the last eight years, so there is nothing to fear about tariffs,” said Khalid Hashim.

For his part, Roar Adland, global head of research at broker SSY, says the tariffs could be bad news for shipping.

“We expect Trump to do what he said and impose higher trade tariffs, especially on China. If other countries take appropriate measures, international maritime trade will suffer, which is bad for shipping,” said Adland.

Punit Oza, founder of Maritime NXT, a maritime consultancy, believes that shipping is facing uncertain times.

“With Trump’s clear policy of increasing US fossil fuel production, involving, for better or worse, all trading partners in renegotiating trade agreements, trade flows will be dynamic and volatile. The export of coal and oil from the USA to Asia will definitely increase,” the expert emphasized.

In his opinion, if Asia and the US conclude an agreement, it could mean an increase in ton-miles and bilateral transportation, which is a rather optimistic forecast.

Peter Sand, an analyst at Xeneta, a platform for container shipping, believes that shipping will face risks that need to be addressed.

“Since shipping is a global industry fueled by international trade, the president-elect is a step in the opposite direction,” the analyst noted.

Lars Jensen, who runs container shipping consultancy Vespucci Maritime, said a Trump victory would likely lead to a short-term boost in US imports.

“In the long term, we may see an escalation of trade wars, which could change the routes and patterns of supply, as we have already seen with Chinese goods being diverted through Mexico,” Jensen added.

According to data from Clarksons Platou Securities, the most affected by Trump’s first trade war with China were dry cargoes, including grain and metal products, followed by LNG (liquefied natural gas) and LPG (liquefied petroleum gas).

According to Clarksons, overall growth in marine tonne miles fell by 0.5% in 2018, followed by a further 0.5% in 2019.

Another area that can expect a crisis after Trump’s victory is the decarbonization of shipping. Analysts at Sea-Intelligence expressed concern that the work of the International Maritime Organization to develop new rules and set global goals could reach a dead end.

“This, in turn, will accelerate the trend when the regulation of decarbonization of shipping will be carried out at the local level, not at the global level,” the analysts emphasized.

Analysts of the Hartland Shipping brokerage company spoke about the prospects of shipping under a potential second Trump administration in January 2025.

“The most certain conclusion we can draw is that the volatility and uncertainty in today’s shipping markets will only increase under Trump 2.0,” Hartland Shipping said.

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