Intelligence: Russia reorients oil exports after reducing supplies to India

In recent weeks, Indian state-owned refineries have abandoned Russian oil, affecting Urals flows with October loading.

Moscow is trying to reorient oil exports after a sharp reduction in supplies to India, offering China Urals oil at a discount of about $1.50 per barrel to Brent, the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine reports.

Since July, state-owned Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited have stopped importing Russian oil, replacing it with purchases of at least 22 million barrels from suppliers in the Middle East and the United States for shipment in September-October.

At the same time, Beijing will not be able to fully compensate for the lost volumes with its orders: Urals is not a basic grade in the structure of Chinese imports due to the remoteness of Russian ports and high logistics costs.

“In addition, Chinese state-owned companies are refraining from a large-scale increase in purchases due to the risk of new US sanctions,” the intelligence service emphasized.

According to SZRU estimates, in the short term, Russia will be able to replace only part of the lost Indian demand through individual contracts with China and smaller Asian buyers. Forced discounts on Urals will increase pressure on export revenues, deepening the deficit of the Russian federal budget.

As a reminder, in early August it became known that state-owned oil refineries in India are refusing to purchase Russian oil, as the US is increasing pressure on New Delhi with new tariffs.