National Bank: Ukraine may lose up to $1 billion in exports due to shelling of ports

In the first quarter, Ukraine may lose up to $1 billion in exports due to shelling of ports, as well as energy and industrial facilities.

This was reported by Ukrinform with reference to the Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine Volodymyr Lepushynskyi.

According to him, additional risks for Ukrainian exports are of some concern. Thus, in the fourth quarter of last year, the situation became more complicated due to the intensification of Russian shelling of Ukrainian ports and factories.

“Accordingly, part of the exports was reoriented to other routes, in particular railway ones, through Europe. But overall, we received a figure that is approximately $150 million less than we expected when preparing the previous forecast. In the first quarter of 2026, the risks are also significant. Due to the shelling of ports and other, in particular, energy problems, export revenues will most likely be $1 billion less than assumed in the previous macroeconomic forecast of the National Bank,” Lepushinsky said.

According to him, the current forecasts are based on the assumption that the previous capacity for transporting goods through seaports will gradually be restored. This will allow for the export of larger volumes of both crops and other goods, in particular metal products.

“In 2025 alone, costs for imports related to defense and energy supply increased by a third. The need for this will continue to exist. But there is good news. We predict an increase in exports of about 17%, while imports — by about 6%. However, of course, the trade balance will continue to be in deficit — primarily due to the needs for defense financing,” he said.

At the same time, Lepushinsky noted that it is important to consider that this deficit is covered by reliable sources of financing. Financial assistance from Ukraine’s international partners not only supports its economy, but is also an investment in the overall security of Europe. Therefore, the National Bank does not see any threats associated with the payment deficit.

Earlier, USM reported that exports from Ukraine decreased by 3%due to the war, logistics restrictions and the shutdown of enterprises.