Prices for the new grain harvest have almost equaled the old one: FOB in Ukrainian ports demonstrates anomalous dynamics
1.04.2026 - 12:56
FOB prices in the ports of Great Odesa demonstrate an almost complete lack of difference between the old and new harvest, and for corn, forward is even more expensive than spot.
Offers for the new harvest of Ukrainian grain have actually equaled prices for the old, which is especially noticeable in export quotes from the ports of the Black Sea. Fastmarkets writes about this.
In particular, wheat with a protein of 11.5% of the new harvest with shipment in August is offered at a level of about $234/t under FOB conditions in the ports of Great Odesa, while the old harvest with shipment in April-May is estimated at only $2/t more expensive.
A similar situation is with feed wheat. The difference between the old and new harvest in port prices has actually disappeared, while last year it reached over $10/t.
The dynamics of corn are the most indicative. Offers for the old crop for export in April-May are formed at $226-227/t FOB, while the new crop with shipment in November is already trading more expensively — about $230/t FOB.
On the DAP port basis, there is also a narrowing of the spread. Deals for new corn are concluded at about $212/t, which is only slightly lower than spot levels.
According to traders, such a “flat” market structure indicates the absence of traditional pressure from the new crop and discounts on forward contracts. Instead, both the old and new crops are affected by the same risks — primarily geopolitical and logistical.
Additional support for FOB prices is provided by high freight and fuel costs, as well as premiums on the basis, which are formed due to instability in the Black Sea region.
At the same time, despite this structure, Ukrainian grain remains competitive on the global market, in particular in relation to Euronext stock exchange quotations and offers from EU ports in the Black Sea.
Also, as USM reported the day before, the port of Chornomorsk held the first auction through Prozorro for transshipment services.
