Private investors use Kernel shares to speculate on news about Ukraine

Shares of the agricultural holding Kernel have recently become a tool for speculation among private investors amid news about Ukraine.

This is reported by Latifundist  with reference to analysts of the investment company Eavex Capital.

According to their observations, during periods of optimism about the possible end of the war in Ukraine, the company’s quotes increase sharply. At the same time, net profit per share for the last quarter amounted to PLN 0.56, which is lower than forecasts.

The company also recorded a decrease in profitability in key areas – sunflower oil production and agricultural trading. Despite this, according to the results of the current financial year, profit is expected at PLN 3.6 per share.

At the current stock price of PLN 18.40, the P/E multiplier is 5.1. However, as Eavex Capital notes, the risk of a forced buyout of shares (squeeze-out) limits their potential for further growth.

Kernel’s $300 million Eurobonds due in 2027 are trading at 92.3 cents per dollar, yielding 10.5% per annum. Thanks to its high liquidity and stable cash flow, the company is unlikely to have any difficulties meeting its debt obligations.

In January-March 2025, Kernel earned $41 million in net profit, down 59% from the same period last year. Revenue grew 14% to $1.15 billion, but EBITDA fell 31% to $110 million.

For the first nine months of the fiscal year (July 2024–March 2025), the company’s revenue grew 19% to $3.1 billion, and net profit grew 7% to $218 million. The total debt load as of March 31 was $755 million, but the net debt to EBITDA ratio remained at a comfortable 0.7x.

USM previously reported that Kernel had reduced grain exports by 15% to 1.6 million tons.