Quotations of agricultural products on the Chicago Stock Exchange increased
10.09.2024 - 14:24
The main factors behind the increase were a decrease in the forecast for the wheat harvest in Russia and concerns about the reduction of wheat stocks in Canada.
As of September 9, wheat quotations on the Chicago Goods Exchange increased slightly. The December contract increased by 0.5 USD/t and reached the level of 208.9 USD/t,ASAP Agri writes.
The main growth factors were the decrease in the wheat harvest forecast in Russia and concerns about the quality of Ukrainian grain. In addition, a significant reduction in wheat inventories in Canada compared to last year was reported, which also supported prices. However, high volumes of exports from the Black Sea region and price competition limited the further growth of quotations.
U.S. wheat export inspections were down week-over-week, though still above last year’s numbers. On the Euronext exchange, wheat ended the day in the red, with the December contract losing EUR 0.5/t, falling to EUR 225.5/t. This is due to the high level of competition in the market, which offset the support due to the decline in the European harvest.
Corn quotes on the Chicago Stock Exchange also rose, with the December contract up $0.5/t to $160.3/t. The main support was the increase in prices in the soybean complex, as well as the expectation of a deterioration in the state of US corn in the weekly USDA report. Analysts also forecast a decline in yields in the US, which will be announced in the monthly WASDE report.
An additional factor was the reduction of the corn export forecast from Ukraine in 2024/25. In Brazil, planting of the first maize crop is slower due to a lack of rainfall, but total production in FY2024/25 is expected to exceed last year, limiting price growth. Corn on Euronext fell: the November contract fell by EUR 1.5/t to EUR 200.5/t.
On the Chicago Stock Exchange, soybean quotations increased by 4.8 USD/t. The market was supported by significant volumes of sales of the new harvest from the USA, which last week amounted to 1.66 million tons. China, as the largest buyer, purchased 1 million tons, which supported prices. At the same time, the market remains cautious in anticipation of the USDA’s September report.
Soybean oil prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose by USD 19/t amid a strengthening oil market. However, soybean oil sales from the US remain low, while Brazilian exports fell significantly in August. As for soybean meal, its quotations remained stable (-0.1 USD/t). Rising soybean prices supported the market, along with expectations of increased demand for soybean meal in China.
Rape futures on Euronext rose by EUR 4.25/t on higher soybean prices and forecasts of a reduced EU rape crop. However, Canadian canola fell by CAD 14.4/t due to an anti-dumping investigation launched by China, which has strained relations between the countries. Concerns are growing that Canada could face a glut in the canola market due to restrictions on exports to China.
As USM recently wrote, FAO lowered its harvest forecast due to the heat that damaged crops in Ukraine, the EU and Mexico.
