Russia is manually trying to stimulate insufficient grain exports

The Russian government has allowed an increase in the upper limit of additional export quotas for grain from 45% to 300%, but only until July 1, 2025.

This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

According to the intelligence officers, such a step should urgently remove the surpluses of the old harvest against the background of sluggish exports.

The SFR recalled that in May this year, wheat exports from Russia decreased to 1.8 million tons. The grain quota for 2025 has been significantly reduced – to 10.6 million tons against 29 million tons in 2024, and applies only to wheat. At the same time, its stocks are the lowest in the last five years – about 14 million tons.

“This creates tension in the market, especially among small exporters, who are forced to sell grain at current low prices. Large companies, on the other hand, are holding back supplies, hoping for a price increase. In November 2024, exporters received 25 thousand rubles per ton of grain, and in May of this year – only 20 thousand. This seriously reduces the margin of suppliers,” the intelligence service noted.

Although 2.5 million tons of wheat still remain unallocated within the main quota, the Russian authorities explain this by mass refusals of market participants. The reason is exports “on command”, which in fact means working at a loss.

“The Russian Federation’s manual management of the agricultural market only deepens imbalances. Stimulating exports by administrative methods can improve statistics in the short term, but it slows down investments and leads to an increase in the crisis in the Russian agro-industrial complex,” the intelligence service summarized.

Earlier, the intelligence service reported that transshipment through the port of Indonesia allows the Russian Federation to circumvent sanctions.