Russia is rapidly losing ground on the world wheat market

The continuation of negative export dynamics will increase pressure on the economy, which is already suffering from sanctions.

Russian wheat exports in July-September 2025 fell by 29% year-on-year to 10.9 million tons. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

As a result, the forecast for annual supplies was reduced to 43.4 million tons compared to 44 million tons in the previous marketing year. For comparison: in the 2024-2025 marketing year, Russia exported 53 million tons of grain, of which 44 million tons were wheat.

The main factor in the decline was weaker demand from importers. The largest buyer of Russian grain, Egypt, is postponing new contracts, expecting a decrease in price from $226 to $220 per ton.

The situation for Russia is also complicated by increased competition. In 2025, Argentina may increase wheat exports to 13 million tons compared to 10.4 million tons a year earlier, Australia to 25.5 million tons (compared to 21.3 million), and the EU is able to increase volumes to 32.4 million tons (28 million in 2024). At the same time, the presence of French traders is noticeably increasing in the markets of North Africa and the Middle East.

Another factor is the decline in the profitability of Russian exports. In September, third-class wheat in Russia cost 14.5 thousand rubles per ton, which is 4% more expensive than last year. An additional blow was the increase in the export duty on wheat by 30% – from 495.9 to 655.6 rubles per ton.

The day before, USM wrote that the Russian Federation organized “pirate convoys” under the Kerch Bridge to export stolen grain and coal.