Russian wheat exports will continue to fall in March

Grain supplies from Russia have fallen to a five-year low due to low profitability for exporters.

In February, Russia exported only 1.9 million tons of wheat, including supplies to the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. This is the lowest level for this month in the past five years, Latifundist reports.

The previous minimum was recorded in 2020, when February exports amounted to 1.93 million tons.

According to analysts, wheat exports from Russia will fall even more in March – to 1.5-1.7 million tons. This may be the lowest figure since March 2021, when Russia sold only 1.02 million tons of grain.

Such a sharp decline in exports is associated with negative profitability for traders due to domestic prices and weak external demand.

However, according to experts, in the second half of the season, demand for Ukrainian wheat will remain stable in Egypt and Tunisia.

As USM wrote the day before, Russia currently provides about 50% of wheat imports to Egypt, while Ukrainian grain, which previously had strong market positions, has not yet been able to restore its export volumes.

At the same time, if Russia introduces quotas for wheat exports, Ukrainian suppliers may receive additional opportunities to increase exports to Egypt, which is one of the key importers of Black Sea grain.

In total, Ukraine exported almost 5 million tons of agricultural products in February. Of the total volume, grain crops account for 3.4 million tons (corn — 53%, wheat — 34%, barley — 2%).