Russia’s oil and gas exports have collapsed to their lowest since July 2023

Russia’s crude oil exports and related revenues have fallen sharply, reaching their lowest level since mid-July last year.

In the four weeks to April 13, average daily shipments from all Russian ports fell to 3.13 million barrels — the lowest since February 2024 and 320,000 barrels less than their recent peak, Bloomberg reported.

Against the backdrop of this reduction in export capacity, the price of oil has fallen by more than $9 per barrel. As a result, the gross value of weekly shipments fell by 6% — to $1.29 billion. This is the lowest figure since the period ended July 16, 2023.

Total revenue from Russian exports fell even more significantly last week — by 16%, or to $1.15 billion. Such dynamics undermine a key source of financing for the Kremlin, particularly in the context of waging war against Ukraine.

At the same time, the market for Russian crude oil has seen a significant drop in prices. Urals, shipped from Baltic ports, fell by $9.10 per barrel, and cargoes from the Black Sea by $9.40. The premium Pacific ESPO grade lost $9.70 in price, and in India, a key buyer, Russian oil was purchased about $9 cheaper.

Prices have fallen to levels that allow the transportation of Russian oil with the participation of Western vessels and insurance companies, which are subject to the restrictions of the “price ceiling” of $60 per barrel. After a long pause, these vessels are returning to transporting Russian barrels, which indicates that the cost of oil has fallen below the established threshold.

Russia, as a member of OPEC+, is currently not benefiting from the cartel’s latest decision to increase production, as its own share is limited by previous commitments to cuts. Moscow is unlikely to be able to increase exports until October.

At the same time, exports to Turkey have remained stable at around 210,000 barrels per day, the highest since February. In total, 21.93 million barrels were loaded onto 29 tankers in the reporting week, down 300,000 barrels from the previous week.

A significant portion of exports go to Asia, but more than 500,000 barrels per day are transported without specifying their final destinations or through transit zones like the Suez Canal.

USM recently reported that the United States has proposed confiscating oil from tankers belonging to Russia’s “shadow fleet.”