The USDA raised its forecast for the world wheat harvest

According to the USDA’s November report, the forecast of production, export and ending stocks of wheat for Ukraine in FY 2024/25 remained unchanged.

At the global level, world wheat production in the 2024/25 season is forecast at 794.73 million tons, which is 0.65 million tons more than the previous forecast. This is reportyed by Elevatorist.

At the same time, the global wheat export forecast was reduced to 214.67 million tons (-1.15 million tons), and the final stocks were reduced to 214.67 million tons (-0.15 million tons).

Forecasts for the US remained unchanged: the harvest will be 53.65 million tons, exports will be 22.45 million tons, and ending stocks will increase to 22.17 million tons (+0.08 million tons).

For Ukraine, the harvest will be 22.9 million tons, exports will be 16 million tons, and ending stocks are expected at the level of 0.99 million tons.

Forecasts for the main wheat exporters in 2024/25 MY:

• Argentina: harvest — 17.5 million tons (-0.5 million tons), export — 11.5 million tons, final stocks — 3.53 million tons (-0.5 million tons);

• Australia: harvest — 32 million tons, export — 25 million tons, final stocks — 2.75 million tons;

• Canada: harvest — 35 million tons, export — 26 million tons, final stocks — 4.53 million tons;

• EU: harvest — 122.6 million tons (-0.4 million tons), export — 30 million tons, final stocks — 10.09 million tons (-0.32 million tons);

According to forecasts, the wheat production forecast for China in 2024/25 will be 140 million tons. The import estimate has been reduced to 11.5 million tons (-0.5 million tons), and ending stocks will amount to 134 million tons (-0.5 million tons).

The day before, USM wrote that prices for Ukrainian corn should be reduced to $188-190/t in order to enter new markets.