UGA: Ukraine can export 49 million tons of grains and oilseeds in the 2025/2026 season if logistical problems can be resolved

The expected harvest of 81.4 million tons – slightly higher than last year – provides potential for increased exports, but risks remain due to damage to infrastructure.

In 2025, the harvest of grain and oilseed crops in Ukraine could amount to 81.4 million tons, which is 2.4 million tons more than last year. This forecast was published by the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA).

If the full potential of logistics is realized, exports in the 2025/2026 season could reach 49 million tons compared to 46.7 million tons a year earlier.

However, the UGA notes that this is an optimistic scenario. Its implementation directly depends on Ukraine’s ability to restore effective export logistics despite regular Russian shelling of energy, railway and port infrastructure. Due to missile attacks and electricity shortages, railways and seaports cannot operate at full capacity, which threatens the export of the harvest.

“The inability to export significant volumes of grain will not only hit the agricultural sector and the domestic market, but will also threaten the country’s balance of payments,” the association emphasizes.

By crop structure, the expectations are as follows:

• wheat: harvest 22.5 million tons (2024 — 22.4 million tons), possible exports — 16.5 million tons;

• barley: 4.9 million tons (2024 — 5.6 million tons), exports — 2.3 million tons;

• corn: 32 million tons (2024 — 25.9 million tons), potential exports — 25 million tons;

• sunflower: 11.5 million tons (2024 — 12.8 million tons), almost all of which will go to internal processing, exports — no more than 50 thousand tons;

• rapeseed: 3.2 million tons (2024 — 3.8 million tons), of which 2.1 million tons can be exported;

• soybean: 5 million tons (2024 — 6.8 million tons), exports — up to 2.5 million tons, the rest — processing in Ukraine due to export restrictions.

UGA also provided a preliminary forecast for 2026. It is expected that the harvest of grains and oilseeds could reach 84.5 million tons, of which up to 50 million tons could potentially be exported, provided the logistics situation is stable.

The day before, USM reported that the Verkhovna Rada had adopted draft law No. 14000 “On the State Budget of Ukraine for 2026.” UAH 14.1 billion in expenditures are planned for the agro-industrial complex (+ UAH 4.5 billion by 2025).