Ukraine will be able to export 22.4 million tons of corn this season — Atria Brokers outlined priority markets

After a drop in supplies in the 2024/25 MY, Ukrainian exporters are focusing on restoring volumes in the new season.

In the 2025/26 MY, the volume of corn exports from Ukraine may reach 22.4 million tons, which is 7% more than the expected 20.9 million tons in the 2024/25 MY. This is stated in the analytical forecast of Atria Brokers, presented at the forum “Global Markets and Frontline Realities: The Future of Ukrainian Grain Exports”.

Despite the potential decrease in demand due to the preservation of duty-free corn imports from the USA, the EU will remain the largest sales market – deliveries here may reach 8 million tons.

The Turkish market is expected to maintain a consistently high demand – about 4 million tons, but the level of purchases will be affected by price conditions and regulatory policy regarding GMOs.

In Egypt, traditionally stable demand remains, and volumes may reach 2 million tons.

A certain export potential has also appeared in India – against the background of growing domestic corn consumption and duty-free imports for starch producers, Ukrainian suppliers receive a window to expand their presence in this market.

At the same time, in China, even with increasing imports, Ukrainian corn is unlikely to be able to compete with Brazilian corn due to the latter’s price and logistical advantage; the expected supply volume is only about 1 million tons.

Against the background of growing prospects in the new season, the current 2024/25 MY shows negative dynamics. According to customs statistics, Ukraine exported grain to 70 countries around the world, but total supply volumes decreased by 6.6 million tons. In particular, corn exports decreased from 20.2 to 15.7 million tons (–22%), and wheat from 15.8 to 13.7 million tons (–13%).

The main sales destinations remain the EU, which accounts for 44% of all grain supplies (in particular, 7.6 million tons of wheat and 4.7 million tons of corn), North Africa (34%: 4.2 million tons of wheat and 2.4 million tons of corn) and Asia, which provides 21% of total exports (3.9 million tons of corn and 1 million tons of wheat).

According to Atria Brokers, the competitiveness of Ukrainian corn in 2025/26 will be determined by a combination of several factors: availability of logistics, regulatory barriers (in particular, regarding GMO content), as well as trading conditions in target markets.

Growing domestic demand in Asian countries and geographical diversification of supplies can support export activity, creating the prerequisites for the restoration and further expansion of Ukraine’s presence in the global market.

Also, the day before, USM wrote that Ukrainian agricultural exporters are looking for new markets due to EU tariffs.