Ukrainian corn enters a season of fierce competition on world markets
3.09.2025 - 15:22
The simultaneous entry into the market of the American and Brazilian harvests will create a record level of supply and pressure on prices.
In the new season, Ukraine may harvest more than 30 million tons of corn. The main volume of grain will enter the market in November, so producers will have to look for export niches against the background of a record supply from the United States and Brazil, writes Viktoriya Blazhko, Head of Editorial Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri.
The harvest in Ukraine is being postponed, and the main export pressure is expected in the fall, when American, Brazilian and Ukrainian corn will enter the market simultaneously.
High volumes of exports by sea will become decisive for the Ukrainian market – it is access to foreign markets that will determine the profitability of farmers in the 2025/26 season.
Thus, the United States predicts a record harvest of 425 million tons, Brazil – 137 million tons. This will create competition in Europe, where grain production will decrease due to weather conditions, as well as in the markets of the Middle East and North Africa.
The EU will remain a key consumer of Ukrainian corn, but the volume of supplies will determine prices. In Turkey, which became an export driver in the previous season, there is currently no demand: new import quotas have not yet been introduced. China is also reducing its appetite for purchases and preferring Brazilian products.
Demand will remain stable in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa, in particular, in Egypt, Israel, Libya and Tunisia, as well as in East Asia. For example, South Korea has already imported more than 800 thousand tons of Ukrainian corn this season, which corresponds to pre-war volumes. Interest also remains from Vietnam.
At the same time, as USM reported, prices for export barley in Ukraine are decreasing due to reduced demand.
