Ukrainian soybean exporters will have to compete with the US

The world soybean market enters the 2025/26 season with a record harvest and the risk of a new trade war between the US and China.

The trade truce between the US and the PRC ends on November 10. If the agreement is not extended, China may refuse to purchase American soybeans, which will lead to a further 20% drop in US exports and create a significant surplus on the world market. This was stated by the head of editorial content and analytics at ASAP Agri Viktoriya Blazhko, writes Latifundist.

American suppliers are already preparing to more actively enter alternative markets – the EU, Egypt, Turkey, countries of the Middle East and Asia. This may create serious pressure on prices and increase competition for Ukrainian exporters.

In the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine can export about 3 million tons of soybeans, but a significant part of the crop will be processed domestically. The main markets remain the EU and Turkey, but it is there that the strongest pressure is expected from the USA, which may offer lower quotes.

USM also recently reported that 290 thousand tons of agricultural products have already been shipped since the beginning of Grain from Ukraine.