Ukrainian soybean supplies to Egypt fell 6 times
16.01.2026 - 14:19
The Egyptian soybean market is currently dominated by the US, and the price gap has effectively cancelled out Ukrainian sales.
In September-December 2025/26, Ukraine shipped only 38,000 tonnes of soybeans to Egypt, compared to 246,000 tonnes a year earlier and 478,000 tonnes in 2023/24. ASAP Agri reports.
Egypt, one of Ukraine’s key markets, is shifting its focus to US soybeans for the second season in a row. While imports were relatively balanced in 2023/24 (US ~41%, Ukraine ~33%), in 2024/25 the US share increased to 76%, while Ukraine’s decreased to 15%.
According to USDA operational data, in September-December 2025, the US has already supplied Egypt with more than 2 million tons of soybeans (versus 1.4 million tons a year earlier), which exceeds 40% of the country’s projected annual imports in the 2025/26 MY (4.9 million tons). At the current pace, American suppliers can cover at least 80% of the market’s needs.
The decline in Ukrainian shipments is explained not only by lower yields and export duties, but also by fierce price competition and the scale of US consignments.
As of mid-January, Ukrainian offers for February were $486–487/ton CIF Egypt, while buyers were calling $474–475/ton; according to brokers, in order to compete, Ukrainian soybeans should be cheaper by at least $15/ton. In such conditions, Egyptian buyers return to Ukraine only during the “window” between American deliveries.
Until recently, Egypt was a strategic destination for Ukraine. In 2023/24, about 1 million tons of soybeans were exported there (46% of total exports), in 2024/25 – already 710 thousand tons (27%). In the current season, even optimistic scenarios speak of only a few hundred thousand tons and a further loss of market share.
Also, the USDA recently lowered the forecast for Ukrainian wheat exports to 14 million tons.
