Ukrainian wheat regains market share in Egypt

Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, is currently undergoing a significant market reformatting, with the share of private companies reaching 75%.

Ukraine’s share in wheat supplies to Egypt has tripled to 1 million tons in 2025 from 334,000 tons a year earlier, Millermagazine reports.

Experts attribute the growth of Ukraine’s presence to several factors: lower freight rates on routes from the Black Sea, stabilization of logistics, and the weakening of Russia’s position, which supplied Egypt with only 2 million tons, compared to 2.58 million tons last year.

“Egyptian private trade is actively diversifying its sources of supply, and Ukrainian wheat looks increasingly competitive,” S&P Global analysts note.

Egypt’s total wheat imports in July–September were 3.3 million tons, slightly less than in 2024, but the forecast for the 2025–2026 season — 13.2 million tons — indicates stable demand.

At the same time, the state is gradually moving away from centralized procurement: the Mostaqbal Misr agency, which replaced the traditional importer GASC, has switched to a private contract model, but it does not yet have sufficient experience in international trade. This creates favorable conditions for more flexible private traders, who more often conclude deals with Ukrainian and Romanian suppliers.

As a result, Ukrainian wheat is strengthening its position in the North African market, restoring its status as a key Black Sea supplier in the region, where CIF Egypt prices in October fluctuated within $252–253 per ton, and freight from Black Sea ports fell to $21/t.

Also, the day before, USM wrote that Syria continues to receive stolen Ukrainian grain from Russia.