UN: World trade volumes to reach record $35 trillion by year-end

Global trade is expected to grow by about 7% this year, adding $2.2 trillion and setting a new record.

The annual World Trade Outlook 2026 has been published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

The strongest drivers of global growth have been East Asia, Africa and South-South trade. Manufacturing, especially electronics, remains the main growth engine, while the energy and automotive sectors lag behind. Trade imbalances remain high and geopolitical fragmentation is changing flows, with friendshoring and nearshoring on the rise again.

World trade will exceed $35 trillion for the first time in 2025, according to UNCTAD’s latest World Trade Outlook for this year. New data confirms that trade continued to expand in the second half of 2025, even as geopolitical tensions, higher costs and uneven global demand slowed the pace.

Global trade grew by 2.5% in the July-September period compared with the previous three months. Goods grew by almost 2%, services by 4%. Growth is expected to continue in the final quarter of the year, albeit at a slower pace: 0.5% for goods and 2% for services. If forecasts hold, goods will add about $1.5 trillion to the total this year, and services will add $750 billion, corresponding to an overall annual growth of 7%.

The key shift is in prices. After two quarters in which the value of trade rose partly due to higher goods prices, prices are now expected to decline. As a result, the growth in world trade by the end of 2025 is driven by higher volumes – the actual number of goods shipped – rather than by rising prices. This suggests robust demand even as inflation eases.

East Asia recorded the strongest export growth in the past year (9%), supported by a 10% increase in intra-regional trade. Africa also performed well, with imports growing by 10% and exports by 6%. South-South trade grew by around 8%, reflecting deepening economic ties between developing countries.

Among individual economies, China and the Republic of Korea stood out in East Asia, while Brazil and South Africa were key drivers in South America and Africa. India and China also showed some of the strongest growth in services exports, underscoring the growing importance of developing countries in world trade.

Manufacturing grew by 10% year-on-year, led by electronics (14%), driven by demand for AI. Agriculture grew strongly in the third quarter, with exports of grains and fruits and vegetables up 11%. Automobile trade fell by 4%, while trade in fossil fuels contracted amid lower prices.

However, imbalances remain high, and friendshoring and nearshoring – the shifting of trade to politically aligned or geographically closer partners – have intensified again, changing the structure of trade.

Looking ahead to 2026, UNCTAD expects weaker growth as slowing global activity, rising debt, higher trade costs and ongoing uncertainty weigh on performance. USM previously reported that the USDA has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s corn and sunflower harvests.