USDA lowers forecast for Ukrainian wheat and corn exports by 3 million tons

The agency directly explains the revision by the conflict in the Black Sea, which keeps shipments below average.

This is evidenced by the data of the report published on November 10, writes ASAP Agri.

In the November WASDE report, the US Department of Agriculture reduced the forecast for Ukrainian wheat exports in the 2026/27 marketing year by 1 million tons – to 11.5 million. The forecast for corn exports was reduced by 2 million tons, to 20 million.

Russian wheat exports were reduced by 1 million tons, to 39 million. In two months, the agency reduced this forecast by a total of 4 million tons. For comparison, SovEcon analysts estimate Russian exports at 36 million tons.

The reduction was partially offset by southern exporters. The forecast for Australia was raised by 1 million tonnes to 24.5 million, and for Argentina by 0.5 million to 16.5 million. Overall, world wheat exports were reduced by 0.3 million tonnes to 208.7 million.

Instead, crop production increased slightly. The world figure was raised by 5.1 million tonnes to 827.5 million, primarily due to improved crop species in the Southern Hemisphere. Estimates for Australia and Argentina were raised by 1.5 million tonnes each to 32.5 million and 23 million respectively. The forecast for Kazakhstan increased by 0.8 million tons to 15.8 million, for Ukraine – by 0.5 million, to 26.5 million.

World ending stocks of wheat increased by 4.8 million tons to 280.8 million. This exceeded the upper limit of market expectations, which was 278.6 million tons.

Almost half of this increase was provided by Black Sea wheat. At the same time, Russian stocks increased by 1 million tons to 20.09 million, Ukrainian – by 1.2 million, to 7.3 million. Grain that cannot be exported remains in the countries of origin.

The report also indicates limited expectations for an imminent peaceful settlement. According to ASAP Agri, the USDA forecast for Ukraine is more pessimistic than their own optimistic scenario of 12.6 million tons, which assumed at least a memorandum between the parties on non-reciprocal attacks on ships.

At the same time, wheat quotes on the CBOT rose amid risks to Black Sea exports and growth in related corn and soybean markets.

As USM reported the day before, Ukrainian flour exports fell by 41% due to problems with maritime logistics.