USDA lowers forecast for Ukrainian wheat harvest and exports
15.07.2025 - 11:02
A new report from the US Department of Agriculture expects a decrease in world wheat trade and corn stocks.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has published an updated forecast of the world crop balance for the 2025/26 marketing year. This is reported by the UCAB.
According to the document, wheat production in Ukraine will decrease by 1 million tons to 22.0 million tons, and the export forecast will decrease accordingly to 15.5 million tons. At the same time, expectations for the production and export of Ukrainian corn remain at the previous level – 30.5 and 15.5 million tons, respectively.
The forecast for world wheat production for the new season remains unchanged – 808.6 million tons. At the same time, the report notes a decrease in production volumes in Canada (to 35.0 million tonnes), Ukraine (to 22.0 million tonnes) and Iran, which is offset by growth in Kazakhstan (to 15.5 million tonnes), EU countries (to 137.3 million tonnes), as well as in Pakistan and Russia (to 83.5 million tonnes).
World wheat consumption will increase to 810.6 million tonnes – mainly due to feed and residual use in Kazakhstan and Thailand. International trade is expected to decrease to 213.1 million tonnes, which is associated with a decrease in exports from Ukraine and EU countries, despite increased supplies from Russia and the USA.
World ending wheat stocks will also decrease – to 261.5 million tonnes, mainly due to a decrease in stocks in Canada and the European Union.
As for corn, the forecast for 2025/26 MY predicts a decrease in total production to 1,263.7 million tons. The main decline is expected in the USA (to 398.9 million tons), while in Canada and Mexico, on the contrary, moderate growth is forecast.
Despite this, the volume of world corn trade will remain unchanged at 195.8 million tons. Ending corn stocks at the global level will also decrease to 272.1 million tons.
The day before, USM reported that Kernel shares on the Warsaw Stock Exchange began to grow again.
