USDA raises forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine
11.12.2024 - 12:21
The forecast for world grain production was instead lowered by 1.78 million tons.
According to the December report of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine was increased by 0.5 million tons – to 16.5 million tons. This is reported by Elevatorist.
In contrast, the estimate for the Ukrainian harvest remains unchanged – 22.9 million tons. Ending stocks are expected at 0.79 million tons, which is 0.2 million tons less than in the previous forecast.
At the same time, USDA experts lowered the forecast for world wheat production by 1.78 million tons – to 792.95 million tons. The forecast for world exports also decreased by 1.02 million tons and is 213.65 million tons. At the same time, the estimate for ending world wheat stocks was increased to 257.88 million tons (+0.31 million tons).
Argentina, the key wheat exporter, is expected to harvest 17.5 million tonnes, with exports of 11.5 million tonnes and a surplus of 3.53 million tonnes.
Australia is forecast to harvest 32 million tonnes, exports of 25 million tonnes and a surplus of 2.58 million tonnes, down 0.17 million tonnes from the previous forecast.
Canada is expected to harvest 34.96 million tonnes (down 0.04 million tonnes), with exports remaining at 26 million tonnes and a surplus of 4.53 million tonnes.
The EU is expecting a harvest of 121.3 million tonnes (down 1.3 million tonnes), with exports estimated at 29 million tonnes (down 1 million tonnes), and a surplus of 10.56 million tonnes (+0.47 million tonnes).
The forecast for the USA has not changed: the harvest will be 53.65 million tons, exports will increase to 23.13 million tons (+0.68 million tons), and ending stocks will decrease to 21.63 million tons (-0.54 million tons).
In China, wheat production is expected to be 140 million tons, imports will decrease to 11 million tons (-0.5 million tons), and ending stocks will decrease to 133.5 million tons (-0.5 million tons).
Recently, USM reported that the Ministry of Agrarian Policy is developing a new export strategy for Ukraine.
