USDA reduced Ukrainian corn export forecast for 2025/26 MY

In the February report, the corn harvest in Ukraine was left at 29 million tons, but the export forecast was reduced to 22 million tons.

USDA analysts updated the corn balance for the 2025/26 marketing year. This is stated in the February report of the US Department of Agriculture.

The agency estimates world corn production at 1,295.91 million tons (–0.1 million tons compared to the previous estimate). At the same time, the forecast for world exports was increased to 206.55 million tons (+1.44 million tons), and ending stocks were reduced to 288.98 million tons (–1.93 million tons).

For Ukraine, the USDA did not change the harvest forecast — 29 million tons in the 2025/26 MY. However, the export estimate was reduced by 1 million tons to 22 million tons, and the forecast for ending stocks was increased to 1.65 million tons (+0.8 million tons).

As for the USA, corn production was left unchanged at 432.34 million tons. The export forecast was increased to 83.82 million tons (+2.54 million tons), and ending stocks, on the contrary, were reduced from 56.56 million tons to 54.02 million tons.

Among the key corn exporters in the 2025/26 MY, the USDA retained the previous estimates for Argentina (53 million tons of harvest / 37 million tons of exports / 5.89 million tons of stocks), Brazil (131 / 43 / 3.68), and Russia (14.5 / 3 / 1.06). For South Africa, the forecast for stocks was slightly increased to 2.04 million tons (plus 0.03), with unchanged harvest (16.5 million tons) and exports (2 million tons).

The USDA estimates China’s corn harvest at 301.24 million tons, imports — 8 million tons, and ending stocks — 180.15 million tons.

USM also recently wrote that flour exports from Ukraine in the current season may decrease by 2.6%.