Wheat exports were low in December, but the situation may change in the near future, — Agrarian Council

Low exports of Ukrainian wheat were due to high military risks and disruptions in port infrastructure.

Despite this, the situation may change due to the activation of importers and negative weather conditions in the Black Sea region, All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council reports.

“December was marked by security risks, so the physical volumes of wheat exports were objectively low. At the same time, the influence of weather factors is increasing on the market, which can support quotes. In the USA, local problems with moisture supply are being recorded in the wheat belt, which is already causing concern about the potential of the new crop. In addition, we have difficult weather conditions in the Black Sea region – frosts without snow cover, flooding with subsequent freezing of the soil. This combination of factors may gradually push the world wheat market up,” the analysts explained.

An additional driver is the recovery of import demand, as key buyers are starting to return to the market after a pause in purchases.

“Egypt last actively purchased wheat in late November – early December, and now needs to replenish stocks. The market is gradually becoming more active, importers need to resume purchases, so in the coming weeks we can expect demand to grow,” the PUSK noted.

As of January 13, conditional prices for wheat with a protein content of 11.5% on a CPT-port basis are $213-214/t.

As previously reported by USM, Ukraine has exported 16.38 million tons of grain since the beginning of the season. The pace of agricultural exports is lagging behind by 31.5%, compared to the same period last year.