EU importers are hesitant to buy Ukrainian corn, — ASAP Agri
22.11.2024 - 14:05
Despite attractive prices, European buyers are in no hurry to buy corn from Ukrainian agricultural producers.
Ukrainian corn is facing a new challenge: although its prices are falling, this does not contribute to the activation of demand. This was reported in a comment to Latifundist by the head of the editorial department and analytics of ASAP Agri Viktoriya Blazhko.
Thus, in October, FOB prices fell by more than $10, reaching $213/t. Despite such a price advantage, key markets remain inert.
European importers, in particular Spain and Italy, are reducing interest in Ukrainian corn. Last marketing year, Spain was among the largest buyers, but now it prefers grain from the USA. The current price of Ukrainian corn is $237/t with delivery on CIF terms to Spain by sea, while buyers expect $230/t.
The situation is similar in Italy. Offers at $237/t CIF are not being met, as the market is targeting an even lower price level.
China, traditionally one of the largest consumers of Ukrainian corn, has significantly reduced its activity this season. Although some interest is still being shown, there are no real deals yet. According to ASAP Agri, exports to China this season will decrease to 3 million tons, which is significantly less than 5 million tons last year.
At the moment, Brazil continues to lead the Chinese market, and the revised forecast of corn imports to China for the 2024/25 MY by the USDA further complicates Ukraine’s prospects in the East Asian region.
Declining demand in key regions and tough competition with other exporters create the risk of further declines in prices for Ukrainian grain. However, according to Blazhko, even a slight increase in demand from China can stabilize the market and give it an impetus to recovery.
Today, Ukrainian corn remains in a state of uncertainty, balancing between competitive pricing and weak demand, waiting for the moment when the market will once again be interested in its potential.
Recently, USM wrote that Ukrainian ports exported $4.4 billion worth of sunflower oil.
