Low supply and logistics disruptions have pushed up corn prices at ports

At the start of the year, farmers held back sales, logistics were hampered by weather and shelling, and port disruptions created a grain shortage.

Against the backdrop of a supply shortage in the first half of January and port disruptions, the price index for corn shipped to ports rose to $208/t CPT-port (+$2 per week), according to Spike Brokers.

In the second half of the month, the “burning” of January and early February contracts triggered a wave of purchases that quickly took up available volumes. Demand for Ukrainian corn for shipment in February has already been partially closed. Together with the low pace of physical exports, this creates the risk of significant surpluses in the second half of the season.

As of January 24, corn exports from Ukraine amounted to 2.04 million tons. The main destinations: Italy – 498 thousand tons, Turkey – 414 thousand tons, Spain – 215 thousand tons, Egypt – 145 thousand tons, Tunisia – 176 thousand tons, Algeria – 89 thousand tons.

Analysts note that the geography of supplies confirms the competitiveness of Ukrainian corn in the MENA and EU markets, but current volumes are not enough to avoid the build-up of final residues.

USM also recently wrote that demand for Ukrainian wheat may increase against the backdrop of problems with export licenses in the Russian Federation.