Agrarian Council: without exports via the Black Sea, the deficit in the agricultural sector could reach $7–8 billion
14.09.2026 - 13:31
By the end of 2026, the deficit in the Ukrainian agricultural sector could reach $7–8 billion if the situation with sea exports does not change.
This was stated by the head of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, Andriy Dykun, following a meeting with a delegation of the World Bank Group in Kyiv.
According to him, the current state of Ukrainian agriculture is more difficult than in 2022. Farmers are entering the new season with significant transitional balances, the need to pay loans, rent and taxes, as well as finance the next sowing. The situation is further aggravated by Russian attacks on port and grain infrastructure.
“Then the blockade of ports caught us in the spring, a significant part of the previous harvest had already been sold, and alternative logistics through the EU were gradually increasing. Now we are entering autumn with a new harvest, about 8 million tons of transitional residues, the need to pay rent, taxes, repay loans and finance the next sowing season,” the head of the VAR noted.
He also added that land routes and the use of ports of neighboring countries cannot fully compensate for the restrictions on sea exports.
“There is no full-fledged alternative to the Black Sea for Ukrainian agricultural exports. No other logistics can replace the volumes that Ukraine has traditionally exported by sea,” Andriy Dykun emphasized.
During negotiations with representatives of the World Bank, led by Regional Vice President for Europe and Central Asia Antonella Bassani, the parties discussed specific instruments to support the Ukrainian agricultural sector.
“It is necessary to preserve tens of thousands of small and medium-sized agricultural producers. Today, they are the ones who depend most on accessible lending and state and international support instruments,” Andriy Dykun emphasized.
In particular, to continue the work of the preferential credit program “5-7-9%” it is necessary to attract about $ 250 million from international partners. They also discussed guarantee instruments for targeted financing, which will allow Ukrainian banks to expand lending to the agricultural sector.
A separate issue was the temporary storage of the harvest. Due to its accumulation, Ukrainian farmers need about 50 thousand grain sleeves. The World Bank is working on a mechanism for compensating up to 80% of their value after purchase.
Among the long-term directions is the possible launch in 2027 of the global AgriConnect initiative, which should facilitate access to technologies and markets for small and medium-sized producers. It is also planned to involve World Bank experts in assessing the adaptation of European rules taking into account the real state of Ukrainian agriculture in war conditions.
Summing up the meeting, the head of the Agrarian Council emphasized that individual support programs are no longer enough to overcome the potential deficit.
“Systemic solutions are needed for financing, insurance and exports. It is necessary to speak much louder about the global consequences of the blockade of the Black Sea. If the exports of both countries remain limited for a long time, the consequences will be felt primarily by the poorest countries. Therefore, today our strategy is very pragmatic: to preserve agricultural producers, go through this period and not lose the country’s production potential,” said Andriy Dykun.
Read also: Cargo handling at the ports of Great Odesa has fallen more than 15 times since July.
