Russian presence in the Baltics has reached its peak, says Finnish Navy Commander

Rear Admiral Tuomas Tiilikainen believes that Russia cannot keep more forces in the region.

The Russian military presence in the Baltic Sea has probably reached its peak. The commander of the Finnish Navy, Rear Admiral Tuomas Tiilikainen, said this in an interview with Sky News.

He describes the situation at sea as tense but stable, and gives two possible reasons. Russia does not see an urgent need to increase its presence or combat readiness in the region, and may have reached the limit of what it can maintain in the Baltic in “peacetime”.

According to Tiilikainen, patrolling and exposing the activities of the “shadow fleet” are yielding results. Since the start of the Baltic Sentry mission in January last year, no attacks on Finnish underwater infrastructure have been recorded.

The commander sees the main threat not in military activity, but in the condition of the ships themselves. The movement of the “shadow fleet” remains constant, and the crews and technical condition of the tankers create the risk of an accident.

“The biggest threat right now is the unprofessional crews of the shadow fleet and the tankers, very old tankers. They can create something like a natural disaster if, say, a tanker runs aground,” he explained.

The Baltic Sentry mission is aimed at detecting and preventing hostile actions in the region, including attempts by sanctioned vessels to damage or spy on undersea data cables, power lines and other critical infrastructure.

The commander gave the interview near the naval base in Turku, when a group of US Marines temporarily joined the mission.

Last week, a Finnish court convicted the captain and boatswain of the Fitburg vessel for damaging two undersea cables between Finland and Estonia in late 2025. The captain received three years and six months in prison, the boatswain two years and ten months.

Meanwhile, ten Nordic countries will agree to deter Russian submarines.