Port blockade could cost the agricultural sector $7.5 billion per marketing year

Overpayment for logistics is about $200 million per month.

The total additional losses of the agricultural sector for the 2026/2027 marketing year could reach $7.5 billion in the event of a prolonged restriction on the work of Black Sea ports. This was announced by Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky during an online discussion organized by the Ukrainian Agricultural and Food Agency, Ukrinform reports.

The amount consists of two parts. About $5 billion is the loss from the inability to export products, calculated taking into account the current alternative routes. Another $2.4 billion per year is added by the increase in the cost of logistics. With export volumes of 2.5 million tons per month, the overpayment is about $200 million per month.

“In fact, it is impossible to find an alternative to the Black Sea ports. Without them, export volumes will significantly decrease. We must prepare for different scenarios, because there are currently no signs of improvement in the situation,” Vysotsky noted.

According to him, farmers have already lost about $3 billion. The minister also did not rule out that the area under corn could be reduced by up to 50%.

The prolonged restriction of maritime logistics creates risks for the further operation of enterprises: the decrease in income makes it difficult to finance production, fulfill obligations and preserve jobs. About 5 million Ukrainians receive payments related to the agricultural sector, and revenues from agricultural activities form about 20% of local budget revenues.

The ministry is working on support mechanisms together with international partners, primarily the EU. According to the department’s estimates, about €1.1 billion is needed to reduce the cost of logistics during the current marketing year.

“We are open to various support mechanisms. This can be not only direct assistance to Ukrainian farmers, but also compensation for logistics costs directly on the territory of the European Union,” the minister explained.

This option is being considered as an alternative to the large-scale purchase of the crop, which was estimated at UAH 180 billion.

“If we do not find the necessary support mechanisms, there is a risk of losing a significant part of the producers,” Vysotsky concluded.

For comparison: according to the National Bank, Ukraine’s losses from the suspension of maritime transport and Russian attacks on infrastructure in the second half of 2026 alone will reach $6.6 billion.