Rapeseed in Ukraine is getting cheaper due to falling prices in Europe, — Agrarian Council

Rapeseed in Ukraine is getting cheaper due to falling prices in Europe, — Agrarian Council


The Ukrainian rapeseed market remains active due to stable demand from Europe. But in the coming weeks, prices may be under pressure due to a correction in the European market.

This was reported by the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established within the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council.

A significant part of the export volumes of rapeseed was contracted back in August. After the work of deep-water ports became more difficult, the main direction of shipments became the European market, where the crop is supplied mainly by rail.

“Approximately 60-70% of rapeseed exports in August-October will be delivered by rail cars. There is demand for Ukrainian rapeseed in Europe, so this channel remains important for exports. For October, according to available information, about 330 thousand tons have been contracted. A significant part of the logistics for these volumes is also provided by contracts. Therefore, no significant changes in export rates are expected yet,” the PUSK notes.

On the European stock exchange Euronext, rapeseed quotes have begun to decline, and over the next two weeks, the decline in European quotes may also affect domestic prices in Ukraine.

“The current decline should be considered as a correction for now. The main trend on the European market remains upward. By December-January, quotes can potentially move towards 600-620 euros/t, and in a favorable scenario, up to 640 euros/t. However, rapeseed may show a decline in the next two weeks. Accordingly, the Ukrainian market will also feel a negative price impact,” analysts explain.

On the domestic market, a decrease in indicative prices by 100-200 UAH/t at factories and by 100-300 UAH/t in the direction of Danube ports has already been recorded. On the western border, demand is maintained at 460-465 euros/t, but sales are being held back by a shortage of available wagons at an acceptable price.

At the same time, significant rapeseed stocks in Ukraine and the expected strengthening of the European market may support prices at the end of the year.

“If European quotes rise to 600-620 euros/tonne, Ukrainian prices, which were around 490-500 euros/tonne in ports, could theoretically rise to 510-520 euros/tonne. That is, the potential for upward movement remains quite significant. As of October 1, rapeseed stocks in Ukraine may amount to about 2.6-2.7 million tons. By December-January, about 1.5 million tons of the crop may remain on the market. Demand and interest in Ukrainian rapeseed will remain,” the PUSK believes.