Strikes on Odesa region ports slow down shipments and increase logistics costs for grain producers
19.12.2025 - 10:29
Due to the Russian attacks on energy and Black Sea ports, grain acceptance and shipment are delayed, which inflates costs and puts pressure on dollar offers.
In Ukrainian ports, export demand prices for corn decreased by $3–4/t per week to $202–205/t (or UAH 9,550–9,700/t with delivery to Black Sea ports). This was reported by the Electronic Grain Exchange of Ukraine.
Delays in the operation of terminals increase the cost of transshipment and freight and at the same time put pressure on currency prices. A slight strengthening of the dollar against the hryvnia partially compensates for this effect, so the market does not currently expect a significant decrease in the hryvnia.
From December 1 to 17, Ukraine exported 1.045 million tons of corn (versus 0.76 million tons for the same period last year). However, since the beginning of the 2025/26 MY, only 4.75 million tons have been shipped, which is 68% slower than last year’s pace. The main reason for weak external demand is aggressive price offers from the USA and Brazil.
External benchmarks have jumped slightly. Thus, March corn futures in Chicago added 0.9% to $173.4/ton, recovering part of the weekly drop (–2.2%) and remaining 1.9% lower than a month ago. The EIA statistics provided support: ethanol production in the USA for the week of December 6–12 renewed its maximum (1.131 million barrels/day), and inventories, despite this, decreased by 157 thousand barrels to 22.353 million barrels.
US exports for December 5-11 decreased by 9% week-on-week to 1.589 million tonnes, but were 37.25% above the level of a year ago. Cumulatively in 2025/26, the US shipped 22.5 million tonnes of corn (+68.7% y/y), which is 27.7% of their forecast for the season. ANEC expects Brazil to export 6.35 million tonnes in December, at the same level as November.
East Asian tenders record a mild corrective minus. South Korean MFG bought 268 thousand tonnes of feed corn on December 17 at $253-254/t C&F (plus $1.5/t for an alternative port), while KFA bought 132 thousand tonnes for March-April delivery at $255-256.84/t C&F on December 9. This outlines a price “ceiling” limit for Ukrainian offers in key supply windows.
Meanwhile, as USM wrote, the American Chamber of Commerce called for increased protection of Black Sea port infrastructure.
