The volume of global transportation by tankers will grow by 3% in 2023

This year, the average indicator of tanker transportation is expected to increase by 3%. At the same time, the volume of the fleet that transports oil and oil products will grow by only 2-2.5%.

Demand

The IMF forecasts that the global economy will grow by an average of 3.0% during 2023-2024: by 2.8% in 2023 and 3.0% in 2024. Risks remain minimal, the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) report said.

Oil production in 2024 is forecast to be 3.2 million barrels/day higher than in 2022. The increase in production will be observed mainly in the USA and Europe.

The EIA (Energy Information Administration) expects a record high consumption of 102.7 mb/d in 2024. The key drivers will be increased activity in China and a global recovery in ground and air transport.

As a result of the EU ban on Russian oil imports, average shipments are expected to increase by 3% this year.

Supplies

Because the order book is quite small, the tanker fleet carrying crude oil is expected to grow by only 2.5% between 2022 and 2024.

Product tanker fleet growth will be just 2% from 2022 to 2024 as a small order book limits growth potential.

Bimco predicts that this year the average speed of ships will reduce deliveries by 1% in both segments.

Supply/demand

In 2022-2024, the oil tanker market is expected to increase supply and demand by 1.6% and 5-7%, respectively.

In the market of food tankers, supply is expected to grow by 0.9% and demand by 6.5-8.5% during this period.

According to forecasts, the balance of supply and demand will strengthen significantly for both oil tankers and product carriers. And the combination of higher oil consumption and longer transportation will stimulate the market.