Ukrainian grain exports have slowed, corn risks accumulating record residues

Due to delayed harvests, logistical disruptions, and Russian shelling, exports are sagging, while carryover stocks are growing.

The start of the 2025/26 MY for Ukraine turned out to be the weakest in recent years. Corn may end the season with ~3 million tons in warehouses — the highest since 2021/22, ASAP Agri reports.

According to ASAP Agri’s Head of Editorial Content and Analytics Victoria Blazhko, shipments in the summer and fall were below the usual trajectory, and winter is unlikely to be an exception. This already creates the risk of accumulating the largest carryover stocks in recent years and sets the tone not only for this season, but also for the next one.

“It will be difficult to quickly level the situation. Logistics in the winter are unlikely to improve significantly, the global market is oversaturated with supply, and EU quotas limit the access of Ukrainian wheat. Meanwhile, Argentina and Australia are entering the world market with record harvests, and are pulling key demand,” Blazhko believes.

The picture for wheat is as follows: in July-November, Ukraine exported 7.3 million tons compared to 9 million tons last year. The biggest drop was in July — shipments fell by half due to delays in harvesting.

Usually, the first five months of the season provide about 60% of annual exports. According to ASAP Agri’s forecast for the 2025/26 MY of 14.7 million tons, this should be approximately 8.8 million tons, but in fact we have 1.5 million tons less. If this “under-export” is not closed in the second half of the season, carryover stocks may jump to about 2 million tons — the highest level since the 2022/23 MY.

The situation with corn is even more acute. In October-November, only 2.8 million tons were shipped, compared to 4.5 million tons a year earlier. ASAP Agri’s baseline forecast predicts exports of 22 million tons for a harvest of 29.3 million tons (the production estimate was reduced taking into account the actual dynamics in the fields). The pessimistic scenario is 20 million tons of exports.

In the coming weeks, prices for Ukrainian corn will decrease, which will strengthen competitiveness in a number of areas, but demand in key markets is sluggish. The USA is actively pushing large volumes, and in the second half of the season, competition from South America traditionally intensifies.

“In recent days, Ukrainian corn has been getting cheaper, which improves its competitiveness in certain markets. However, demand in key areas remains weak: the USA is actively offering large volumes, and in the second half of the season, competition from South America traditionally intensifies,” says Blazhko, adding that the winter period will be decisive.

Historically, Ukraine ships about 35% of its annual corn exports in December–February. To meet the baseline of 22 million tons, it would need to export at least 7.7 million tons over the three winter months—an average of about 2.6 million tons per month. Given current logistical conditions and weak demand, this is a high but still achievable target. If it is not met, carryover stocks will grow even more significantly.

According to the baseline scenario, carryover stocks of corn at the end of the 2025/26 MY could reach about 3 million tons—a million more than last year, and would be the highest since the 2021/22 season. If the pessimistic scenario with weak winter export rates is implemented, up to 2 million tons could be added to this level.

“Therefore, Ukraine enters the middle of the 2025/26 season with unprecedented risks of grain accumulation. The main pressure is being exerted by wheat and corn, crops that form the core of the export balance. If logistics do not stabilize in the winter and demand in key markets does not increase, the season may end with the largest carryover stocks in the last three years. And this is a direct path to increasing pressure on domestic prices in the long term,” Blazhko concluded.

The day before, USM wrote that insurance rates in the Black Sea have tripled, as shipowners fear Russian strikes on exports from Ukraine.