Ukrainian agricultural exports may fall to a record low in August

In the first 15 days of August, Ukraine exported only 641.9 thousand tons of agricultural products, and the projected export volume for the entire month is about 1.33 million tons.

Ukrainian agricultural exports slowed down sharply in August due to a drop in sea shipments. This is reported by Spike Brokers.

Thus, in the first half of the month, 641.9 thousand tons of agricultural cargo were exported from the country by all modes of transport. For comparison, in July this figure was 2.889 million tons. Analysts expect that by the end of August, Ukraine will export about 1.33 million tons of agricultural products. This is 54% less than the July figure.

Such a result may be the worst for August during the entire period of the full-scale war. The expected volume is 68% lower than the average August figure in 2022–2025, which was 4.19 million tons. At the same time, it will be 64% less than the previous minimum recorded in August 2025 — 3.71 million tons.

Sea transportation has decreased especially sharply. If in July sea transport accounted for 86.5% of Ukrainian agricultural exports, then in the first 15 days of August its share decreased to 51.4%.

Against this background, the share of railways has increased — from 11.2% in July to 38.5% in the first half of August. However, this does not mean an increase in the actual volumes of railway exports.

According to Ukrzaliznytsia, grain exports by rail during this period decreased by 68% compared to July and by 77% in annual terms. The reason was primarily a drop in sea shipments, which alternative routes could not compensate for.

In particular, 250 thousand tons of agricultural products were shipped via the western border crossings by rail from August 1 to 15, which is 126% more than in the corresponding period in July. At the same time, only 53.2 thousand tons were transported to the ports of Greater Odessa, which is 94.5% less than in the first half of the previous month.

According to Spike Brokers, the increase in land transportation compensated for only about 15% of the loss of sea traffic. If we also take into account the increase in exports via Izmail, the total level of compensation does not exceed 19%.

Road transportation also failed to significantly change the situation. In the first 15 days of August, 28.7 thousand tons of agricultural products were exported by road, compared to 58.8 thousand tons for the whole of July.

At the same time, the share of road transport in total exports increased from approximately 2% to 4.5%. However, as analysts note, this is primarily due to the decline in total exports, and not a real increase in road shipments.

Thus, Ukrainian agricultural logistics in August again demonstrates critical dependence on the sea corridor. At the same time, railways, road transport and Danube ports are able to compensate for only a small part of the losses.

Meanwhile, as USM wrote, the capacities of neighboring countries for Ukrainian grain are now loaded at 100%.