Wheat exports from the Black Sea are falling, but the world market has not yet responded with price increases

Ukraine and Russia sharply reduced wheat export rates in August due to shipping problems and attacks on port infrastructure.

Wheat export rates from Ukraine and Russia in August are significantly lower than last year’s figures. This is reported by Grain Trade.

In Ukraine, traders are increasingly reorienting cargoes to road and rail transport to European ports and consumers due to Russian attacks. However, these routes are not able to fully compensate for the losses in sea exports.

According to industry experts, in the period from August 1 to 21, Ukraine exported only 340 thousand tons of wheat – 3.7 times less than in the same period last year. In total, since the beginning of the 2026/27 marketing year, Ukrainian wheat exports amounted to 1.41 million tons, which is 44% less than in the previous season.

Russian exports have fallen even more sharply. In the first 20 days of August, the Russian Federation exported about 1 million tons of wheat to foreign markets, which is 2.6 times less than last year. At the same time, during the period from August 10 to 20 alone, export volumes decreased by 4.6 times, to 415.5 thousand tons.

Russian wheat is currently shipped from only eight ports, while a year ago exports were carried out through 29 ports. Additional pressure on the Russian market is created by the reluctance of some shipowners to call at Black Sea ports due to security risks.

Against this background, one would expect a sharp increase in demand for American wheat. However, US exports are also showing weak dynamics. In the period from August 13 to 20, American deliveries decreased by 17.2%, to 425.7 thousand tons, which is 59% less than in the same period last year.

In total, the US has exported 4.34 million tonnes of wheat since the start of 2026/27, down 26% from the same period last season.

Despite the reduction in supply from key exporters, the rise in wheat prices has now stopped. Over the past week, September soft winter wheat SRW futures in Chicago rose 1% to $250.5 per tonne, and spring wheat HRS contracts in Minneapolis rose 2.9% to $255.3 per tonne.

On Euronext in Paris, soft wheat futures rose 1% to €227.5 per tonne, or about $265.4. At the same time, hard winter wheat HRW quotes in Kansas City fell 1% to $275.8 per tonne.

The forecast for world production also does not create the prerequisites for a significant decrease in the price of grain. The International Grains Council has lowered its estimate of the wheat harvest in 2026/27 MY by 4 million tons to 817 million tons.

The situation on the physical market looks more tense. American wheat rose in price by $11 per ton over the week to $270–280 per ton FOB, French wheat by $3 to $265 per ton. At the same time, Russian wheat became cheaper: offer prices fell to about $220 per ton FOB Novorossiysk.

Domestic prices for food wheat in Russia fell by about $6 per week to $138–140 per ton.

In Ukraine, export purchase prices for wheat in Danube ports decreased to UAH 8,000–8,500 per ton, or $160–170 for food wheat. Feed wheat costs about UAH 7,500–8,000 per ton, or $150–155.

At the same time, demand for food wheat on the Ukrainian-Romanian border has increased to $150–152 per ton. With delivery to Galati, the price reaches $200–210 per ton, and to Constanta — $235–237.

Ukrainian processors currently maintain purchase prices for food wheat within UAH 6,700–7,200 per ton with delivery to the mill, preferring high-quality grain.

Further dynamics of world prices will largely depend on the situation with Russian exports. The beginning of spring wheat harvesting in the Russian Federation, a possible reduction in the forecast for its harvest in September, and the persistence of problems with the export of grain from Black Sea ports may again increase pressure on the world market and give quotes a new impetus to growth.

USM previously wrote that Ukraine is ready to support Turkey’s initiative to suspend attacks in the Black Sea.