Grain prices rise as ports wait for increased volumes

Spike Brokers analysts record activity in the wheat, corn and sunflower oil market on the basis of DAP Odesa.

In the second week of July, Spike Brokers analysts recorded the conclusion of contracts for the supply of wheat, corn and sunflower oil on the basis of DAP Odesa, as well as FCA Chop for corn.

Harvesting in Ukraine is slower than last year. Despite this, Ukraine retains leadership in the supply of soft wheat (60.4%) and corn (55.6%) to the EU. At the same time, the share of Ukrainian soybean exports has increased to 10.8%.

Wheat prices in the ports of Odesa have increased slightly against the backdrop of a delay in the harvest. The nearest July positions are attracting increased attention from traders. It is expected that with the start of mass harvesting, prices may decrease. Buyers’ indications:

• DAP Odesa (12.5%) — $213–215,

• DAP Odesa (11.5%) — $211–213,

• DAP Odesa (feed) — $203–205.

The activity of sellers of the new corn crop has increased, but buyers are holding back due to expectations of a record global supply. About 100 thousand tons were contracted in the ports of Odessa for the week, but the overall dynamics remain restrained:

• DAP Odesa — $200–205,

• FCA border — €186–188.

Barley prices are temporarily supported by delays in harvesting, but the main export activity is expected until September, after which a decrease is possible. Prices under DAP Odesa conditions — $205–207.

Meanwhile, uncertainty is growing in the market due to the potential introduction of a 10% export duty. The collection is going very slowly, which increases the tension:

• DAP Odesa — $535–545,

• DAP factory — $590–600 (including VAT).

Also, as USM reported the day before, despite the war, all Western traders who attract up to $15 billion for exports have returned to Ukraine.