Due to sanctions, Russian oil production fell below OPEC quota, — Foreign Intelligence

Ukrainian foreign intelligence reports a deepening systemic crisis in the Russian oil industry due to sanctions pressure and sales problems.

In December 2025, average daily oil production in the Russian Federation decreased to 9.326 million barrels per day. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence of Ukraine of Ukraine.

This is more than 100 thousand b/d less than in November, and almost 250 thousand b/d below the OPEC+ quota (9.574 million b/d). Such a monthly reduction is the largest since June 2024.

Despite exports from Russian ports at about 4 million b/d, increasingly large volumes remain without final buyers and accumulate in floating storage facilities. Since the end of November, the volume of oil stuck at sea has increased by about 30 million barrels – to 185 million barrels.

Additional pressure is created by falling world prices, which reduces the profitability of production. Under such conditions, Russia is unlikely to be able to meet OPEC+ quotas, which means lower foreign exchange earnings and greater budgetary pressure in 2026.

The Kremlin will have to compensate for the losses by raising taxes on other sectors, by more active borrowing, or by reducing investments – steps that, according to the Foreign Intelligence of Ukraine, will only deepen the degradation of the oil industry.

USM also recently wrote that Trump approved a bipartisan sanctions bill against Russia.