Wheat supplies to Ukrainian ports delayed due to frost

The cold is slowing down the delivery of grain to ports, so traders are raising rates to speed up shipments.

Over the past two weeks, export purchase prices have added about UAH 100/t. This is reported by Grain Trade.

Thus, prices for food wheat have increased to UAH 10.3–10.5 thousand/t (or $212–215/t), feed wheat – to UAH 10.0–10.1 thousand/t (or $205–206/t) on CPT Black Sea port terms.

From January 1 to 27, 420 thousand tons of wheat were shipped (last year – 700 thousand tons). In total, in the 2025/26 MY, exports are 8.37 million tons compared to 10.61 million tons a year earlier.

The export forecast was lowered to 14 million tons (last season — 15.8 million tons) due to delays in the first half of the season and relatively high prices for Ukrainian grain. At the same time, the weakening of the dollar on the interbank market and the normalization of supplies may stop further growth in export prices in the coming weeks.

There was no “frost rally” on external markets. March SRW in Chicago increased by 0.9% — to $192/t, while wheat on Euronext fell by 1.2% — to €189/t (≈$224.4/t). Short-term frosts in the USA in the presence of snow cover did not create significant risks for winter crops.

The day before, USM wrote that exports from Ukraine decreased by 3% due to the war, logistics restrictions and the shutdown of enterprises.