Turkey and the EU support demand for Ukrainian grain, despite falling stock market prices
11.05.2026 - 11:17
Corn prices rose in ports amid subdued supply and stable demand from Turkey and the EU.
On a CPT basis, the physical grain market in Ukraine’s Black Sea ports showed dynamics during the week that differed from exchange trends. Spike Brokers reports.
The main impact on the domestic market was grain supply, export coverage, and competition for volumes in the port direction, while exchange volatility remained a secondary factor.
Thus, the July corn futures on the CBOT fell to 471.25 c/bu (-9 c/bu) during the week, and the June MATIF contract fell to 211.50 euros (-11.5 euros).
At the same time, the Ukrainian physical market showed the opposite movement. FOB Ukraine for May-June rose to 240 dollars/t (+4 dollars), and SPIKE CPT Odesa to 227 dollars/t (+5 dollars).
Analysts explain this gap by the restrained supply of grain from sellers and the continued active demand from Turkey and European buyers.
Additional pressure on world exchanges was created by the decline in energy prices, the rapid pace of corn sowing in the USA and profit-taking by funds after the previous market growth.
As of May 1–7, Ukraine exported 526 thousand tons of corn. The largest buyers were:
• Turkey — 163.2 thousand tons;
• The Netherlands — 70.6 thousand tons;
• Belgium — 58.2 thousand tons;
• Italy — 53.9 thousand tons;
• Israel — 41.4 thousand tons.
In the wheat market, the July CBOT contract fell to 610.25 c/bu (-26.5 c/bu), and the September Euronext contract fell to 206.25 euros (-7.25 euros).
The pressure on quotations was caused by improved weather conditions in the USA and Europe, lower energy prices and a weakening geopolitical premium.
Despite this, Ukrainian wheat on the physical market remained relatively stable. FOB Ukraine 11.5% for May-June increased to 237 USD/t, while SPIKE CPT Odesa 11.5% remained at 219 USD/t. Feed wheat added 1 USD to 216 USD/t.
In the first week of May, Ukraine exported 266.6 thousand tons of wheat. The main destinations were:
• Egypt — 137.3 thousand tons;
• Yemen — 52.1 thousand tons;
• Algeria — 39.8 thousand tons;
• Lebanon — 15 thousand tons;
• Indonesia — 9.8 thousand tons.
USM also recently wrote that Israeli importers have offered Ukraine a mechanism for checking grain from the occupied territories.
