New investigation links Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ to attacks on underwater infrastructure
22.05.2026 - 14:26
The Russian “shadow fleet” is used not only to circumvent sanctions, but also as a tool of hybrid warfare against European countries.
This is according to the authors of the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) study, Splash reports.
Russian oil tankers that are part of the so-called “shadow fleet” may be involved in sabotage against underwater infrastructure and reconnaissance activities near military facilities in Europe.
The author of the study, analyst Vitold Stupnitsky, analyzed incidents in 2025-2026, including damage to underwater cables, drone activity, ship seizures, and Russia’s actions in response to sanctions pressure.
According to estimates by the Ukrainian authorities, the Russian “shadow fleet” has 1,392 ships, while other sources estimate it at up to 3,200 units. According to researchers, this fleet transports up to 80% of Russian oil exports by sea and accounts for almost a fifth of all oil tankers in the world.
The report also cites data from Windward, according to which 2,313 Russian-related vessel movements were recorded in the Baltic Sea during the year. Vessel activity near underwater infrastructure increased by 153% year-on-year, and in the Finnish exclusive economic zone by 849%.
The researchers recall that four underwater cables have been damaged in the Baltic Sea since the beginning of 2025. In particular, the Finnish authorities suspect the Eagle S vessel from the “shadow fleet” of damaging the Estlink 2 power cable between Estonia and Finland in late 2024.
Separately, the report mentions the activity of drones over ports, military bases and airports in Belgium, Denmark, Germany and Norway. In total, 54 such incidents were recorded in 2025.
The authors of the study also note that Russia has begun to more actively re-register ships under its own flag, trying to make it more difficult for European countries to detain them. Since May 2025, almost 70 ships have already been transferred to the Russian register.
The report emphasizes that the confrontation around the “shadow fleet” creates a risk of further escalation in the Baltic and North Seas. Earlier, the USM reported that the SBU exposed Ukrainians and foreigners who bought ships for the Russian “shadow fleet”.
