Ukraine may underexport 9 million tons of agricultural products in three months, — UCAB

In August-October, Ukraine may not deliver about 9 million tons of agricultural products to foreign markets due to the reduction in available export capacities.

This is reported by the UCAB.

The largest deficit is expected in August – about 2.9 million tons, in September – 2.8 million tons, in October – 3.3 million tons.

The Ukrainian Agricultural and Food Agency notes that alternative routes cannot yet fully replace sea exports. Danube ports depend on water levels and vessel draft, railways – on the capacity of crossings and transshipment infrastructure, and road transportation remains too expensive for large volumes.

The largest share of unexported products will fall on grains, primarily wheat and corn.

Under the baseline scenario, deferred foreign exchange earnings in August–October could amount to about $1.9 billion. At higher export prices, up to $2.8 billion.

The UCAB emphasizes that this is not only about direct losses: some products may be exported later after alternative routes are expanded.

At the same time, a long delay in exports will mean the accumulation of stocks, additional logistics and storage costs, pressure on domestic prices, and deterioration in the liquidity of agricultural producers.