Ukraine will be able to export up to 30 million tons of grain per year without the ports of the Odesa region

The total throughput capacity of alternative routes is 2–2.5 million tons per month or 24–30 million tons of grain per year.

This was stated by Valeriy Tkachev, Deputy Director of the Department of Transportation Technology and Commercial Work of JSC Ukrzaliznytsia, during the VIII International Conference “Production, Operation and Repair of Rolling Stock”, writes RAIL.insider.

According to him, 18.8 million tons of grain were transported for export by rail in nine months. However, due to restrictions on the operation of the ports of Greater Odessa, farmers may not have time to export all planned volumes: this year’s exports are estimated at approximately 50 million tons.

Without the ports of Great Odesa, the railway can deliver up to 1.1 million tons of grain per month to the western border crossings and up to 500 thousand tons to the ports of the Danube. Road transport can add approximately 500 thousand tons.

“Thus, the total throughput capacity of alternative routes is 2–2.5 million tons per month, or 24–30 million tons per year. That is, approximately 20 million tons of grain can be transferred to the next year,” said Valery Tkachev.

He also added that state authorities are looking for ways to increase the throughput capacity of existing routes. In particular, a meeting was recently held on exports via Hungary, and news about the relevant permits may appear in the near future.

At the same time, restrictions on sea logistics also affect ore exports. Previously, approximately half of its volumes were sent to Europe, and half to China. Alternative transportation through the ports of Constanta (Romania), Gdansk or Gdynia (Poland), according to Valery Tkachev, may be economically inexpedient: the price of ore is $ 95–103 per ton, and additional logistics costs offset profits.

Exports of metal products by rail amount to 7–8 million tons. There are fewer logistical constraints for it, but the industry faces competition and the effects of the European Carbon Import Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

Read also: Rail grain shipments to ports fell by half in October.