In October, the rate of Ukrainian wheat exports through the port of Constanta may decrease: what is known

Ukraine can export about 1 million tons of wheat in September, but in October the load on logistics will increase significantly due to the intensification of corn supplies.

As analysts of the PUSK cooperative from the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council reported, in July Ukraine exported about 1 million tons of wheat.

“In August — 600 thousand tons, and in September we can again approach 1 million tons. Currently, wheat is actively shipped through Constanta. However, in October, corn will enter the market, which will compete with wheat for logistics. Because of this, the pace of wheat exports may decrease,” experts note.

At the same time, the situation on external markets remains favorable for Ukrainian wheat in terms of demand. However, the final economics of supplies for Ukrainian sellers is largely determined by transportation costs.

“There is currently a certain imbalance in the wheat market: demand exceeds available supply. Last week, Egypt bought Ukrainian wheat at conditional prices of about $300–307 per ton. At the same time, sea logistics have become significantly more expensive. If two weeks ago, freight to Egypt cost about $60 per ton, then at the end of last week it was already about $100–105. That is, the logistics component alone increased by about $40 per ton in two weeks,” analysts emphasize.

According to their estimates, in the near future the wheat market may remain relatively stable without sharp price fluctuations.

At the same time, the high cost of freight and limited logistics capabilities will continue to affect domestic purchase prices. Therefore, even with high demand in foreign markets, the margin of sales of Ukrainian wheat will largely depend on the cost of delivery and the chosen sales channel.

As USM previously reported, the port of Constanta is increasing the transshipment of rapeseed against the background of problems with Ukrainian supplies.