Short-term ship delays in Turkish Straits could be a test of market reaction, opinion

Market participants expected a clearer statement from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan regarding the possible closure or restriction of vessel passage through the straits.

However, after short delays, Turkey resumed normal traffic. This opinion was shared with USM by Konstantin Sobol, founder of Marelis Navigation S.A. .

Sobol believes that Ankara does not want to enter a legally complex area and directly violate the Montreux Convention regime. At the same time, the short restriction was intended to show Ukraine and Russia that Turkey can influence shipping if the risks in the Black Sea increase.

The expert also does not expect a long-term paralysis of shipping. According to him, shipowners and charterers have already partially adapted to the new level of military risk, and the intensity of attacks on ships has decreased in recent weeks.

“The Black Sea is actually a ship graveyard,” Sobol said, adding that the market has learned to work even with a high level of danger.

It also allows for agreement on separate rules to protect grain ships, similar to those in effect after the launch of the Ukrainian maritime corridor in 2023.